Intensifying Rhetorical Battle Between Ethiopian Government and Eritrean Government Sparks Fears of Armed Clash

Growing apprehensions exist over the possibility of warfare involving East African neighbors, Ethiopia and Eritrea, as hostile discourse has ratcheted up in the past few weeks.

Horn of Africa region
Ethiopia and The Eritrean government worked together in the armed struggle in Tigray but they have later become estranged.

What Has Ethiopian Officials Declared?

Ethiopia's, being landlocked, requests for access to the maritime outlet through Eritrean territory has provoked a intense war of words.

PM Abiy Ahmed first openly declared in the previous year that his government's maritime access was an crucial concern, statements that Eritrea rejected.

Ties between the neighboring nations have often been tense. After a long-standing battle for independence, Eritrea, which has a long Red Sea coastline, officially seceded from Ethiopian rule in the early 1990s, making it without sea access.

Five years later, a military clash broke out in which over a hundred thousand people died.

Current Statements from Ethiopia's Officials

Abiy and army chief General Birhanu Jula have publicly asserted ownership of Eritrean southern port of the port of Assab – about 60km from the boundary - and suggested the desire to capture it through military means.

On 1 September, the Prime Minister said Ethiopia's "mistake" of being denied passage to the Red Sea as a due to Eritrea secession would be "corrected tomorrow".

The Ethiopian envoy to Kenya, former General Bacha Debele, said that Assab was "Ethiopia's wealth" and would be returned "by force".

Eritrea's Response to the Statements

Amid persistent challenges from Ethiopian officials, Eritrea's response has been confined to brief comments on X from Communications Head Yemane Gebremeskel.

The minister has dismissed Ethiopian requests for maritime entry calling it "dangerous" and a "negative policy" of "irredentism" – a policy of claiming back lost territory.

Eritrean authorities alerted on 16 September that moves to legitimise "flagrant aggression" would have significant repercussions for the Ethiopian government and its regional partners and is a "redline that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Military Movements on the Ground

There have been no reports of significant troop deployments in the boundary zones between the both nations.

Nonetheless, in Ethiopia, national TV has displayed graduation ceremonies of thousands of cadets at different defense facilities.

The leader of human resources department of the defense force, the officer, commented lately in an interview that the defense forces was in a "secure situation" as "many thousands of young people" were joining it, which he said was "a message to our opponents".

Previous Background of the Conflict

For decades from the late 19th century, Eritrea was governed by Italian rulers.

After the end of Italian rule, it was then controlled by the British military before becoming a associated territory of the Ethiopian empire.

Yet in 1962 Emperor Haile Selassie I terminated this system and Eritrea became fully incorporated into the Ethiopian state.

A three-decade long armed struggle ensued, finishing with the government's loss in the early 1990s. Autonomy was then endorsed by the population in a plebiscite in 1993.

For a few years in the 1990s, there were good relations between the governments in Ethiopia's capital and Asmara, but they fell out over the specific demarcation of their common border, resulting in conflict in 1998.

Although this ended in a peace deal in 2000, it was never fully implemented, and the both countries remained at odds.

This situation improved in 2018, when the Prime Minister made approaches to Eritrea's leader Isaias Afwerki. The two agreed to a announcement that the conflict was finished – a action that won Abiy the Nobel Peace Prize.

The both administrations were then cooperators in the country's recent armed struggle in the northern region.

However diplomatic connections have since broken down again.

John Reynolds
John Reynolds

Logistics expert with over a decade of experience in supply chain management and tracking technologies.