Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that divided the country and caused turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an highly divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in universities but scarcely any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two pieces that aim for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and social statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, taxes, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they support unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has got important lessons to learn from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster must join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
